In January this year we decided to just listen to the media cacophony about matric results and not contribute to it. We are tired of trying to explain that:

• The matric “pass rate” is meaningless, and must be accompanied by a basket of quality indicators (which the Department of Basic Education, DBE, reports on annually).
• The throughput rates estimate the proportion of Grade 2s who make it to Grade 12, and that this is NOT “the real pass rate”.
• Matrics and their teachers work hard for their achievements and crying that a 30% matric pass is meaningless is both discouraging and false.

Matric is passed at four different levels of difficulty:

1. A pass.
2. A pass with admission to a higher certificate programme.
3. A pass with admission to a diploma programme.
4. A pass with admission to bachelor’s degree programme.

Matric gets you into the queue for further study or the world of work. Matric results — far above 30% — are required for both routes.

The Department of Basic Education recognises these myths. It dutifully conducts its awards ceremonies. It publishes its basket of indicators trying hard to shift the national discourse. The recurrent media mantra —  every January — has little substance and appears largely to be political grandstanding. So we kept our distance from it.

But we remain committed scholars who are interested in sharing the details of how our National Senior Certificate (NSC) Class of 2024 fared. We therefore publish a report card for each province. These report on the basket of indicators that the Department of Basic Education tracks:

• NSC pass rate (at all levels of pass).
• NSC pass rate at the most difficult level (admission to a bachelor’s degree programme).
• Pass rates for gateway subjects: Accounting, mathematics; physical science, technical mathematics.
• Participation in mathematics: The proportion of matriculants taking maths, and not taking maths literacy or technical maths.
• The estimate of Grade 2s in 2013 who made it to Grade 12 in 2024, which is tricky given TVET colleges and provincial migration.

There are some additional indicators of quality of learning:

• Proportion of students obtaining 50% or more in maths (of those taking maths).
• Proportion of students obtaining 50% in Physical Science (of those taking Physical Science).
• Proportions of distinctions: Across marks for all subjects, the proportion of distinctions (marks at 80% or more).

We add in one indicator for equity and redress:

• The proportion of NSC passes (at admission to bachelor’s degree level) which come from no-fee schools.

With roughly 60% of our schools being no fee (and receiving the greatest per learner subsidy from the state), this is an indicator of equity and redress. Over time, we would want a higher proportion of quality passes (that give access to a degree), to be coming from these schools, rather than from fee-paying schools.

What are our highlights?

• Gender disparities remain a problem (more on these some other time). We are losing more young men from schools, and they generally perform poorly compared to young women.
• Our education outcomes are improving, albeit slowly (more on these some other time).
• We have a serious problem in the Northern Cape. It is screaming for help and desperately needs our attention.

In every metric within the basket of indicators, Northern Cape is stone last or second last. What is going wrong? The pass rate at admission to bachelor’s level is a paltry 39%. The participation rate in mathematics is 19%. Nineteen percent! And of those who take mathematics, only 26% pass at 50% or above. For physical science things are worse, with only 22% of those taking it passing at 50% or above.

Northern Cape — is this a scream for help? What is going wrong in Northern Cape schools? Sure, there are vast distances. Sure, there are one-horse towns, but with the investments in renewable energy and mining in this province, surely we can convene an education crisis committee?

Can we have a properly constituted education trust, comprising the businesses and community organisations and labour unions in the Northern Cape? What is going wrong here, Sol Plaatjie University, National Education Collaboration Trust (NECT) in the Northern Cape, SA Democratic Teachers Union Northern Cape, National Professional Teachers Organisation of South Africa Northern Cape, NGOs in the Northern Cape? Centralise some of the corporate social investment spending and get the Northern Cape back on its feet. This is seriously dire, people.

When contemplating educational performance using the basket of indicators of North West, it is hard not to feel a twinge of sympathy for landing second-to-last in the provincial rankings. With an overall weak performance and an average score across various indicators falling below the national average, it seems like North West might have taken “Why try harder?” as a motivational slogan.

While an impressive overall pass rate of 88% may suggest a province celebrating academic success, the reality is tempered by lingering challenges in learner preparedness and engagement.

Among a formidable 40,575 candidates, a rather modest 46.5% of female candidates passed while their male counterparts fared slightly worse at 43.2%. It is almost as if there is a competition for who can underperform more spectacularly, which is a talent in its own right.

Now let’s address the elephant in the classroom: the stark contrast between the 26% in mathematics participation and the 57% throughput raises our eyebrows because it seems like North West is taking a leisurely stroll away from mathematics as if it is a subject best left unmentioned.

Furthermore, North West shows an above average 72% of National Senior Certificate passes coming from no-fee paying schools, highlighting the potential that exists in supporting schools catering for children of poor and working class South Africans.

Yet, one cannot help but wonder if these schools are handing out certificates at diploma or higher certificate level along with free meals; perhaps that’s the catch looking at that National Senior Certificate pass rate (bachelor’s degree pass) of 45%.

Gauteng found itself sitting uncomfortably in seventh position out of nine provinces, ranking third from the bottom when considering the basket of indicators.

While Gauteng commanded attention with an impressive overall pass rate of 88%, it also presented a puzzling picture, with a below-average participation in mathematics. Surprisingly, among those who did take the subject, a commendable 36% of learners achieved scores of more than 50%. Their throughput stands at 65% with proportions of distinctions again below average at only 5%.

Nevertheless, the reality of education equity remains a challenge as both Gauteng (33%) and the Western Cape (28%) struggle with low percentages of NSC passes qualifying for bachelor’s degree admission from no-fee schools. This juxtaposition of the education system and the targeted reforms should ensure that all learners, regardless of socioeconomic status, have the opportunity to succeed.

Western Cape sits in sixth position when considering the basket of indicators, and let’s just say it is not exactly doing a victory dance. While its overall pass rate is 87%, the statistics might make even the toughest teacher crack a smile. Western Cape is grappling with some rather perplexing issues. It struggles with a curious conundrum at the bachelor’s admission level (48%) at the national average.

The Western Cape faces a significant challenge with a low mathematics participation rate of just 24%. Among those who do take the subject, more than half of them score 50%, indicating that those engaged are performing well.

It seems like the province also excels in physical science where learner performance significantly outpaces the national average. Looking at the gender disparities of the 62,863 candidates, 35,288 were female with a pass rate of 50.2%, while the 27,575 male candidates achieved a pass rate of 44.7%.

In an unsettling, yet not surprising twist, the proportion of NSC passes at the bachelor level from no-fee paying schools is particularly concerning, standing at only 28%, the lowest among all provinces. This highlights the inequalities in educational quality and access, suggesting that learners from these schools face additional barriers to achieving higher standards.

Eastern Cape ranked fourth overall in 2024, tying for this position with Mpumalanga.

Eastern Cape emerges with a below-average provincial pass rate of 85% (all passes) and a below average (44%) for bachelor’s level passes. The province encountered a significant hurdle in mathematics: it seems that too many weak candidates are enrolled in mathematics, but this leads to a poor mathematics attainment. The province maintained 43% enrolment in mathematics classes, which is noteworthy, but only 24% of those cleared the 50% mark.

The estimate of throughput looks good. And Eastern Cape performs excellently in relation to the proportion of bachelor’s level passes from no-fee schools. This is significantly above the national average.

Mpumalanga ties in fourth place with Eastern Cape in 2024. Like the Eastern Cape it has a high proportion of candidates (41%) taking mathematics, with a below-average mathematics pass rate at the 50% level (27%).

Mpumalanga, you may benefit from considering which candidates are suitable for mathematics — and perhaps consider those who are obtaining distinctions in maths literacy as possible quality maths passes. Currently there are too many students failing mathematics.

Your proportions of learners passing physical science (74%) is just below the national norm, and your pass rate at 50% in this subject is at the national average (29%). The mismatch is more stark for mathematics.

Where Mpumalanga excels is in the proportion of NSC passes for admission into a bachelor’s degree that come from no-fee schools, at 81%. This is well above the national average, and something of which Mpumalanga should be justifiably proud.

KwaZulu-Natal recorded an impressive 90% pass rate. But let us dive a little bit deeper into these numbers to uncover some interesting stories.

The mathematics pass is impressive at 69%, but quality passes (above 50%) are a paltry 30%. Out of 161,962 candidates, 91,857 were female, 82,152 passed (53% of total pass rate), while, of the 70,105 males, 62,838 passed, giving a male pass rate of 50% out of the total. Similar gender disparities are evident for physical sciences.

The proportion of bachelor passes from no-fee schools is good at 69%. KZN also excels in the portion of distinctions, claiming the top spot on this indicator.

Free State has had some excellent results in 2024 and is hot on the heels of Limpopo. Its pass rate (at all NSC levels) is striking at 91%. However, more important is its pass rate for admission to a bachelor’s degree (48%) — where it is are only average.

Mathematics participation is low (34%), perhaps suggesting some gaming of the system to achieve the highest pass rate? The proportions of learners getting more than 50% in maths (29%) and in physical science (28%) is just below average, and concerning.

Where Free State excels is in its no-fee schools, where 71% of its passes (at bachelor’s level) are from these schools.

Free State, we are watching you to see you increase the maths and science quality passes. We don’t mind a low pass rate if you are getting more learners to take these challenging subjects, and pass them. Perhaps some of your maths literacy distinction candidates would be better off passing mathematics?

Limpopo is ranked first overall in 2024 across the provinces with a provincial pass rate of 85%, similar to Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga. The province lags a little in relation to the proportion of passes (at all levels), as well as its proportion of bachelor’s level passes (44%).

Its proportions of learners attaining more than 50% in mathematics and physical science are just below average. However, this obscures its good performance across many of the other indicators.

Limpopo is definitely the province to watch in terms of mathematics participation (44%) and the proportion of NSC passes (admission to bachelor’s level) from no-0fee schools (86%). Looking across the basket of indicators, Limpopo tops the rankings of the provinces in 2024 with almost balanced gender passes at 44.2% for males and 44.3% for females.

In 2024, Limpopo took the top achievement award across the basket of indicators, and the equity and redress indicator of bachelor’s level passes from no fee schools. Congratulations! DM

Nicky Roberts is director of Kelello, and an extraordinary Associate Professor at the University of Stellenbosch. Mhlanga Mbala is a Kelello intern and a PhD candidate in politics at Wits University. Refilwe Thobejane is a Kelello intern. She is doing her master’s in social development at Wits.